GAME 23: 2/6/2010 – 4 PM
PETE MARAVICH ASSEMBLY CENTER – BATON ROGUE, LA
TV – SEC TV
LSU TIGERS 9-13 (0-8)
KENTUCKY LEADS SERIES 78-24
3/13/2009: LSU 67 KENTUCKY 58 (SEC TOURNEY)
2/28/2009: LSU 73 KENTUCKY 70
2/16/2008: KENTUCKY 67 LSU 63
2/20/2007: KENTUCKY 70 LSU 63
2/25/2006: LSU 71 KENTUCKY 67
Basketball wise, the Tigers are a widely inconsistent school. If they are not very, very good, they are usually average to mediocre at best. During the last five seasons. LSU has had a 23-9 Final Four season in 2006 and last year’s 26-7 season in which they were 3-0 against Kentucky. They other three seasons, they were a combined 47-48 and you guessed it, 0-3 against the Wildcats. This season is a mix of the both as the Tigers started out the season 8-2, but have gone 1-11 since then and have now lost eight games in a row. Only a 83-60 win over powerful McNeese State has kept them from a 12 game skid. Let’s take a look at the Tigers and see if they can manage to put a scare into the Wildcats.
THE STARTERS
G – BO SPENCER – JR 6’1, 185
14.5 ppg, 2.3 rebs, 2.9 assists
G – AARON DOTSON – FR – 6’4, 195
3.5 ppg, 1.8 rebs, 1.1 assists
F – TASMIN MITCHELL – SR – 6’7, 235
17.6 ppg, 9.9 rebs, 1.9 assists
F – DENNIS HARRIS – FR – 6’10 195
4.3 ppg, 3.0 rebs. 0.6 assists
F – STORM WARREN – S0 – 6’7 220
12.8 ppg, 8.0 rebs, 0.4 assists
Bo Spencer has stepped into the spotlight after playing “key reserve” to Marcus Thornton last season and his game has shown the stress of carrying a team. He is a dangerous player who can score points in bunches as he has 8 games with 20 or more points, but his other numbers have gone south from last year. Shooting has declined from 41% to 33%, 3-point shooting from 40% to 27% and his A/TO ratio went from 1.38 to .81. With Spencer, you never know what you will get: in his last four games he has scored 25, 9, 6, and 22. Aaron Dotson was a top 100 freshman recruit and with most freshmen, has been wildly inconsistent. His shooting, on a whole has been miserable. He hits 29.5% of his shots and just 15.4% of his threes. He does have 3 double digit games, but has scored just 9 points total the last four games. Chris Bass is next in the guard rotation for LSU as he logs 25 minutes a game. He scores just 2.5 points a game, but he is averaging 3 assists and has a pretty impressive A/TO ratio of 2.39. At just 6’0 though, you wonder if he can dish the ball against Kentucky’s big guards. Zach Knisley, at 6’5 rotates as a guard and a forward. He is logging about 15 minutes a game and averages just 3.4 points, but it should be noted that he has the best 3-point percentage at 40%, but that equates to just 12-30 on the year.
You have to feel for Tasmin Mitchell being on this team. As we can recall, Tubby recruited the hell out of this guy and he does have Final Four experience. He is without a doubt, the one player that brings it every night for LSU. Mitchell has 10 double doubles on the year and 4 in his last 5 games. He is a tenacious rebounder and displays a decent 3-point touch (31%) for a big guy. He is used to being double teamed so expect him to get his numbers. The big question in the game will is if DeMarcus Cousins can break Dennis Harris in half. At 6’10 and 195, he is close to entering the Manute Bol range (not quite though). For his size, he is not that effective a rebounder. but is decent close to the basket (53.7%). To be fair, he is probably better than Bol and if he ever got in a chicken wing eating contest with Bol, my money is on Harris to win 8-6. Storm Warren could be a candidate for breakout player in the SEC as he has thrived moving into a starting spot. Like most of the Tigers though, his best play was in the first half of the season. He has 8 double digit rebounding games, but just one since December 17. Scoring wise, he has disappeard lately as well, wi
th 7 points in his last two games. He is a a good scorer close to the basket, hitting 57.5% of his shots, and a great deal of those points are putbacks of offensive misses. Watch him on the offensive boards as nearly half his rebounds are off Tiger misses. Freshman Eddie Ludwig has been getting more time lately but still has pretty pedestrian averages of 2.2 points and 2.4 boards in 11 minutes a game. At 6’9, he could see more action tomorrow.
OUTLOOK
On paper, there is really no way to be nice about it. LSU really does not stand a chance against UK. But as we know, these games are not played on paper and this game will be played in front of a crazy crowd at LSU. Truth be told, this is the Tigers Super Bowl and it occurs a day before the home state Saint’s real Super Bowl. Think this will be a 9-13 crowd? Think again. And it should be noted that LSU gave Tennessee all they wanted just last night on this same floor, before losing 59-54.
The thing that as a pessimistic Kentucky fan scares me is the fact that despite hitting 41.7% on their FG’s for the season, the Tigers have been on a horrible cold streak the last three games, hitting 30.5%, 34%. and 29.2%. Are the Tigers due a 60% shooting performance? Sure. But in the last three games, this LSU game has played horrendously for a half, registering a 16 point first half against Tennessee, a 15 point 1st half against Mississippi State, and a 13 point second half against Bama (and just 38 points for that game).
Truth be told, the Tigers are a three man team right now with Mitchell, Mitchell, and Warren. No one else produces. UK, on the other hand, goes 9-10 deep, and we may see all 13 this game. Do expect a very ugly first half of the game as LSU tries to keep this score in the 50’s or 60’s but in the end, talent wins. Kentucky 81 LSU 57.
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