by Paul Jordan
GAME 17- 1/12/2010
9:00 PM – O’CONNELL CENTER – GAINESVILLE, FL
FLORIDA GATORS (11-4) (0-1)
TV – ESPN
KENTUCKY LEADS SERIES 86-32
RECENT MEETINGS:
3/7/2009 – FLORIDA 60 KENTUCKY 53
2/10/2009 – KENTUCKY 68 FLORIDA 65
3/9/2008 – KENTUCKY 75 FLORIDA 70
1/19/2008 – FLORIDA 81 KENTUCKY 70
Is January 12th too early to be a “must win” game for your team. For the Florida Gators, you can argue “YES”. After seemingly building a college basketball dynasty with back to back titles, the last two seasons have been a huge free fall. The Gators went from invincible to run-of-the-mill and found themselves out of the NCAA Tournament the last two seasons. This year was supposed to be different. The Gators dispatched in state nemesis Florida State and upset then #3 Michigan State to break the top 10 in the rankings with a 8-0 record. Then Syracuse, Richmond, and South Alabama happened and the Gator free fall seemed to occur before SEC play this season. Then, on Saturday, Vanderbilt knocked off the Gators in the SEC opener the Gators risk an 0-2 SEC start and falling two games behind Kentucky with a loss. So while technically, this is not a must win for UF, it’s pretty darn close.
THE STARTERS
G- ERVING WALKER, SO, 5’8, 171 — 11.5 ppg, 3.1 reb, 5 assists
G- KENNY BOYNTON, FR , 6’2, 183 — 14.6 ppg, 3.3 reb, 3.5 assists
F – DAN WERNER, SR, 6’8, 230 — 6.6 ppg, 4.5 reb, 2.3 assists
F- ALEX TYUS, JR, 6’8, 220 — 11.7 ppg, 6.5 reb, 0.3 assists
C – VERNON MACKLIN , JR, 6’10, 240 — 10.0 ppg, 5.5 reb, 1.1 assists
Erving Walker is the quintessential New York guard, full of confidence and skills. He has a very good A/T ration and is fearless on the court. The only drawback is that he is 5’8, but like Eric Bledsoe, he plays much taller. Matching up against a 6’4 Wall can be a mismatch. For his size, Walker is a good rebounder as well. He loves to shoot from beyond the 3-point line, but his shooting percentage numbers have gone down drastically this year from last year (43.4% to 33.5% regular, 41.9% to 32.2% 3-point). Regardless, he can be a weapon from past the 3-point line. He was 5-8 on Saturday vs Vandy, but was 3-21 the previous four games. Kenny Boynton is the Gator’s all everything freshman guard. Boynton is athletic and loves to shoot the rock, but is hitting just 37.5 of his FG attempts and 27.6% of his 3-point attempts. That does not stop him from shooting … a lot and so far this season, he has just three games where he has hit 50% of his shots. Boynton has launched 116 3-point attempts on the season, so he is fearless. He is coming off a 6-14 performance on treys against Vandy but he was 4-15 his previous two games. Ray Shipman plays the G/F position but does not offer much in scoring (3.2) or rebounding (2.3) and has a bad A/T ratio and only 2 made 3-pointers. The infamous Nimrod Tishman (they call him Rod — how cute) and Kyle McClanahan are the other guards and only play in blowouts.
Dan Werner is back for seemingly his 8th season as a Gator and is scoring his lowest average points in three seasons. He has a better 3-point percentage than both the guards at 34.8% but has just 16 treys on the season. He was 2-4 against Vandy but fore then had a 6 game streak where he was 0-15 on 3-pointers. Alex Tyus is pretty steady as a 12 point, 6 board night a game guy. He does have three double doubles on the season and has a pretty good knack on the offensive board. He is not much of an outside shot, but is pretty effective near the basket (52.9). Vernon Macklin has good size, is a good offensive rebounder, and has the team’s best shooting percentage at 61.1%. He does have a tendency to disappear in the Florida losses (5 pts, 4 pts, 13 pts, and 2 pts) and has a tendency to get in foul trouble. He can be hesitant to shoot because he has only two games with 10 or more shot attempt. Chandler Parsons can be the “x-factor” in the game as he has good size at 6’9 but shoots like a guard. He is hitting 48.6% of his shots and 38.6 from 3-point land, which is best on the team. He was on fire earlier in the season, scoring in double digits off the bench in four of the last five games, but has done that just twice since then. He gets a fair amount of rebounds but is soft on the offensive board. Erik Murphy plays only about 10 minutes a game and 4.4 points and 2.6 boards. Most of his numbers were compiled against the cupcake schedule however.
OUTLOOK
Make no mistake, Florida is a dangerous team. Their starting lineup plus Chandler can hold their own with about any team in the SEC, but that is the problem there. After Chandler being the 6th man, the Gators really have no other depth. For their credit, the Gators are a very disciplined team and usually stay out of foul trouble. But against a team like Kentucky, lack of depth can be a fatal flaw.
UK has to defend against the 3-point shot. This is a team that can get hot like Sam Houston State and Miami and give UK real problems. But for the season, Florida is just 29.1% from the 3-point line. They can get hot … but will they. Even if the Gators are not hitting, you can bet the bombs will keep dropping. They attempted 30 treys in a loss against Syracuse.
Another factor will be the insane environment that will greet UK. UK really has just one road game in their 16 thus far so they have been sheltered against the hostile crowds, so this will be a test. Look for DeMarcus Cousins to be a target of both the fan
s and Macklin and Tyus. There is no love lost between the two teams so this may get as physical as the Louisville game. But if there is one thing that UK has done, is prove that they can scrap and get physical and win the ugly game. And while the 3-pointers do concern me, just remember that UF had 13 3-pointers against Vandy and still lost by 8. A.J Ogilvy was all world against them and Vandy exposed the Gator forwards for their softness in that win.
I am expecting this game to be a dogfight, but in the end, I like our bench better than theirs, I think that Patterson, Cousins and Orton trump Macklin and Tyus, and I will take John Wall with 6-8 inch height advantage. It’s not going to be easy or pretty but UK 78 Florida 71.
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