Hello Big Blue Nation, we are close to tip-off of one of the greatest in-state college basketball rivalries in the country as the Cats and Cards square off today at 3:30 p.m. on CBS. Being the numbers guy that I am, I looked into some stats and this is what I’ve found out about both this season’s teams and the history of this rivalry in the “Modern Era” (1983 to present):
I looked at the boxscores of the previous 28 games between the two schools in the “Modern Era” and I found these certain trends:
The team that has the better field goal percentage wins the game 82.1% of the time.
UK’s field goal percentage this season: 50.5%
UofL: 45.9%
Advantage: UK
The team that has the most assists wins the game 81.5% of the time.
UK: 42.6 RPG
UofL: 40.8 RPG
Advantage: UK
The team that has the better 3 point field goal percentage wins the game 73.9% of the time.
UK: 42.2%
UofL: 32.1%
Advantage: UK
The team that has fewest fouls win the game 73.1% of the time.
UK: 15 FPG
UofL: 20.1 FPG
Advantage: UK
The team that has the most steals wins the game 72.7% of the time.
UK: 7.1 SPG
UofL: 8.6 SPG
Advantage: UofL
The team that has the fewest turnovers wins the game 68.2% of the time.
UK: 15.3 TPG
UofL: 13.8 TPG
Advantage: UofL
The team that has the better free throw percentage wins the game 67.9% of the time.
UK: 69.7%
UofL: 68.5%
Advantage: UK
The team that has the most blocks wins the game 66.7% of the time.
UK: 7.5 BPG
UofL: 3.8 BPG
Advantage: UK
The team that has the most rebounds wins the game 50% of the time.
UK: 42.6 RPG
UofL: 40.8 RPG
Advantage: UK
In a not-so-good trend for us Wildcat fans, the last 3 times UK has faced UofL being ranked in the top 5 of the Associated Press Poll they have come away with a loss. The last time UK defeated UofL while being ranked in the top 5 of the AP Poll was 12/31/1996, a 74-54 victory at Freedom Hall.
Here are some other trends and records I have found concerning the “Modern Era” of the rivalry that pertain to this year’s game:
UK’s record vs. UofL at Rupp Arena: 10-4
UK’s record vs. an unranked UofL team: 7-5
UK’s record vs. UofL when UK is ranked: 14-6
UK’s record vs. UofL when UK is ranked and UofL is unranked: 5-4
UK’s record vs. UofL when they come into the UofL game off a win: 13-8
UK’s record vs. UofL when UofL comes into the game off a win: 10-8
UK’s record vs. UofL when both teams come into the game off a win: 8-5
UK’s record vs. UofL when the game is played in January: 1-3
UK’s record vs. UofL with Rick Pitino as their head coach: 4-4
A trend that is in UK’s advantage is that they’ve never lost 3 games in a row to UofL, nor have they ever lost 2 home games in a row against UofL in the series.
If UK scores at least 80 points and hold UofL to 69 points or less, that can almost guarantee victory. UK is 6-1 vs. UofL when they score at least 80 points and 13-1 vs. UofL when they allow 69 points or less.
And I couldn’t end this without revisiting history of a UK freshman who stole the show in a UK rout of the Cardinals. Rex Chapman led the Wildcats to a 85-51 victory over the defending national champion Louisville Cardinals on 12/27/1986 at Freedom Hall. As Clark Kellogg would say Rex was a supreme stat sheet stuffer that game with 26 points, including 5 of 8 shooting from 3, 4 assists, and 2 steals. With Eric Bledsoe, DeMarcus Cousins, and John Wall putting up phenomenal numbers in games this season as freshman, hopefully we might see them breakout and have a UK/UofL game that will be remembered for ages.
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