GAME 15- 1/2/2010
3:30 PM – RUPP ARENA – LEXINGTON, KY
LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (10-3)
TV – CBS
KENTUCKY LEADS SERIES 26-14
RECENT MEETINGS:
1/4/2009 – LOUISVILLE 74 KENTUCKY 71
1/5/2008 – LOUISVILLE 89 KENTUCKY 75
12/16/2006: KENTUCKY 61 LOUISVILLE 49
12/17/2005: KENTUCKY 73 KENTUCKY 61
12/18/2004: KENTUCKY 60 LOUISVILLE 58
No other team on the Wildcat’s schedule will fill the “enemy” mode more than the Dirty Cards from Louisville. Face it, this is the premier college basketball rivalry. You can look at the many years and all the attempts that this game was not played and the attempts to make it happen. Or the fact that Rick Pitino now coaches the Cardinals. Or the fact that the John Calipari/Rick Pitino makes the juiciest of story lines. Even if you don’t buy into all that hype, UK is 14-0 and facing a dangerous 10-3 team. Got the picture? It’s a huge game.
The Cardinals come into the game con something in a row, having blasted three cupcakes and Western Kentucky. This came on the heels of a headscratching set of four games which included losses to UNLV, Charlotte and … Western Carolina. Regardless, this is a rivalry game and even though we despise him now, Pitino is still a damn good coach and I am sure he is as confident of victory as Calipari is.
THE STARTERS
G- EDGAR SOSA, SR, 6’2, 175 — 13.3 ppg, 1.7 reb, 4.3 assists
G- JERRY SMITH, SR , 6’2, 190 — 8.7 ppg, 3.7 reb, 2.6 assists
G/F – REGINALD DELK, SR, 6’1, 170 — 6.7 ppg, 3.0 reb, 1.4 assists
F- SAMARDO SAMUELS, SO, 6’9, 260 — 16.4 ppg, 7.6 reb, 1.1 assists
F – JARED SWOPSHIRE , SO, 6’8, 220 — 8.0 ppg, 5.7 reb, 0.8 assists
Edgar Sosa brings steady senior leadership to the point guard position and is having his best season as a Cardinal. He has a pretty good A/TO ration (1.9/1) and is a decent rebounder. The big concern for UK is not allowing him to get free beyond the arc as he is hitting 41% of his three’s and is not afraid to put the ball up. While he is quick, he is not John Wall quick though. Jerry Smith is about as average as his name. He’s does not have a great shooting percentage (38.7) and is below average from beyond the 3 point line (23%) but that does not stop him from throwing up 5 shots a game. Smith can get hot however. He had 4 trey’s in the season opener, but then has had just 8 the rest of the season. Although Delk has been starting, he only averages 19 minutes a game, but he has been very efficient in his time. He has the highest 3-point percentage (47%) and has the best A/TO ratio on the team (2.61). Preston Knowles shares time at the guard position and is averaging 8.5 points and 3.7 rebounds. He also is pretty adept at handling the ball. Freshman Peyton Siva is only averaging 13 minutes a game for the Card and is averaging 4.6 points a game and has been plagued by turnovers. If you recall, Siva was supposed to be the Card’s version of John Wall. Mike Marra was hailed as a sharpshooter but has just hurled up long range bricks thus far. He is hitting just 19% of his 3-pointers and has seen significant playing time the last few games.
Samardo Samuels will be a factor in this game in the paint but his rebounding number are inflated by double digit games against cupcakes. If you are looking for a telling stat, Samuels had 3, 4, and 2 rebounds in the Cards three losses. In comparision, he racked up 29 rebounds in two games versus La Lafayette and Radford. Now you know why people call him soft. Samuels has a pretty low shooting percentage (53%) for a big man so the Samuel/Patterson matchup should be one to watch. Jared Swopshire is the more consistent rebounder for the Cards and has six games with double digit rebounds. He is pretty good at cleaning the glass for offensive rebounds, but is not that effective a shooter, hitting just 41% of his shots. He is almost effective from beyond the arc at 33%. Terrence Jennings does offer good size at 6’10, but the talented sophomore has been in and out
of Pitino’s doghouse but has been productive when he plays. While he is averaging just 13.3 minutes a game, he does score 6.4 points and 3.8 rebounds a game. He has a 61% shooting percentage so you wonder if he can be an “x” factor in this game. Freshman Rakeem Buckles is only averaging 12 minutes a game but is consistent with 4.1 points and 4.3 boards.
OUTLOOK
The first things that strike me about the Dirty Cardinals is their depth and senior leadership. The Cards have 10 players that average more than 10 minutes a game and Marra is just a shade under 10. The Cards also have 10 players averaging over 4 points a game, so if this game turns into a track meet, Louisville actually has the horses to keep up with Kentucky. Having three senior starters helped to assure that this team will not be as rattled as most people think.
When you look at the talent, the Cardinals have a solid team, but you would have to give UK the edge under the basket with Patterson, Cousins, and Orton matching up with Samuels, Swopshire and Jennings. The guard play will be an interesting one to watch. The experience factor between Wall and Sosa is prevalent but should be negated by the fact Wall is at home in a very supportive UK crowd.
The big area of advantage in the starting lineup will be Cousins vs Swopshire and possibly Bledsoe vs Smith. Once again, in the Bledsoe vs Smith, its a senior vs freshman matchup, but it’s Smith that will have the angry crowd against him. All in all, the Cardinals represent a very good matchup for UK and this could be the type of matchup UK could face in the Sweet 16. I am not of the camp that UK will blow the Cards out. If UK does blow the Cards out, the rest of the SEC and the nation should be very, very scared. I am going to go with a UK 80, Louisville 72 score.
If you are looking for more on the Kentucky/Louisville matchup, check back around 7:00 when Alan will take a look at the stunning reversal of fortunes between the Cats and the Cards since last season.
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