UK vs. Clemson : Inside The Numbers
By Staff
by Corey Price
Hello to everyone out there who claim to have dual citizenship with the Big Blue Nation. To quickly introduce myself, I’m Corey Price, a proud alum of the University Of Kentucky (graduated in May 2008), and a die hard UK football fan since birth. I also love numbers (graduated with a B.S. Mathematics degree), so I love looking at statistics. So what better to do just a few days before the 2009 Music City Bowl between the Kentucky Wildcats and the Clemson Tigers than to look at the matchup in terms of numbers. Now, I know plenty of football fans out there are probably thinking right now, “Hey buddy, football games aren’t played on paper, they’re played on the field between the lines”. And I too agree, games are decided on the field. Tell the 1998 Temple Owls football team that games are played on paper (they upset Virginia Tech 28-24 as 35-point underdogs). But, until the game is actually played, I find it interesting and fun to compare the teams and players and find common trends or big disparities between the two. Plus, it gives fans of both teams some bragging/trash talking material until December 27th. So, here is my statistical comparison/breakdown between Kentucky and Clemson. I hope you enjoy and let the arguing begin.
First off, I will take a look at the only common opponent between both the Wildcats and the Tigers, which would be the South Carolina Gamecocks. Just at first glance, it’s pretty obvious that the common theme between Kentucky and Clemson against the Gamecocks is that they both lost, UK by 2 points in early October and Clemson by 17 points in late November. But besides that, both the Wildcats and Tigers went about losing to South Carolina in two totally different ways. First off, Kentucky and Clemson took a different approach offensively against the Gamecocks. UK went with a more running attack, rushing the ball 47 times while only passing it 22 times. Clemson, on the other hand, decided to air it out, throwing the ball 42 times and running the ball only 19 times. That difference showed up in the disparity in rushing yards, with UK piling up 205 yards while Clemson was stuffed for only 48 yards. Time of possession is also affected by running the ball. With UK playing on the ground more, they had the ball for 30:43, a little over half the game. Clemson only had the ball for 23:39, under 40% of the game. Kentucky also played a mistake-free game against the Gamecocks, they didn’t turn the ball over. Clemson turned the ball over 3 times against USC. The last big difference between UK and Clemson against USC was red zone offense. The Wildcats got inside the Gamecock 20-yard line 6 times, scoring on 5 of those opportunities. Clemson, due to 3 turnovers and not being able to run the ball effectively, never got inside the USC 20-yard line.
Next, I will compare both the Wildcats and Tigers in a more broad view, over the entire season. What first jumped off the page at me was the almost identical run/pass breakdown between the Kentucky offense and Clemson’s opponents this season. UK, on the season, has passed the ball 37.1% of the time and ran the ball 62.9% of the time. Clemson’s opponents, on the season, have passed the ball 37.3% of the time and ran the ball 62.7% of the time. So, I would expect UK to not waver any from their offensive philosophy all season and run the ball consistently against the Tigers defense. Another fact that I found interesting was that the Kentucky defense allowed both 16 passing and 16 rushing touchdowns this season thus far and the Clemson offense scored both 22 passing and 22 rushing touchdowns on the season. So based on that I would expect Clemson to have a balanced scoring attack in the bowl game, although I hope it would be balanced at both 0 passing and 0 rushing touchdowns of course.
Next I will look at big disparities in statistics between the Kentucky Wildcats and Clemson Tigers on the season. I consider a big disparity in which one of the schools is in the top 30 in the nation in a certain category while the other school is in the bottom 30 in the nation in the same category. Since there are 120 FBS teams, the bottom 30 would be a ranking of 91st or worse. Here they are:
4th Down Conversion Percentage
UK – 75% (T-3rd)
Clemson – 26.67% (110th)
Tackles For Loss
UK – 5 tackles for loss per game (T-92nd)
Clemson – 7.46 tackles for loss per game (T-13th)
Sacks
UK – 1.33 sacks per game (T-104th)
Clemson – 2.62 sacks per game (25th)
Red Zone Defense
UK – 76% (T-18th)
Clemson – 90% (T-109th)
Next I will look at statistical categories in which both Kentucky and Clemson are similar, both in the top 30 in the country. Here they are:
Passing Defense
UK – 179.75 passing yards per game (18th)
Clemson – 166.85 passing yards per game (11th)
Pass Efficiency Defense
UK – 110.83 (23rd)
Clemson – 111.27 (24th)
Punt Returns
UK – 13.08 yards per punt return (T-18th)
Clemson – 14.38 yards per punt return (9th)
Kickoff Returns
UK – 23.85 yards per kickoff return (24th)
Clemson – 23.8 yards per kickoff return (26th)
Fewest Penalties Per Game
UK – 4.58 penalties per game (8th)
Clemson – 4.77 penalties per game (10th)
Fewest Yards Penalized Per Game
UK – 40.58 penalty yards per game (9th)
Clemson – 42.62 penalty yards per game (14th)
Last but not least, I couldn’t look at both teams without overlooking two of the greatest playmakers and most underrated offensive threats in the college football game, Clemson’s C.J. Spiller and Kentucky’s Randall Cobb. Both players have made a difference in many games this season, both on offense and special teams. Spiller has averaged 192.92 all-purpose yards per game, 4th best in the nation, while Cobb has averaged 147.18 all-purpose yards per game, 28th best in the nation. Both players have scored touchdowns in multiple ways. C.J. has scored 11 rushing touchdowns, passing for 1 touchdown, 4 receiving touchdowns, 1 punt return touchdown, and 4 kickoff return touchdowns. Randall has scored 10 rushing touchdowns, 4 receiving touchdowns, and 1 punt return touchdown. Spiller is Clemson’s leading rusher and 2nd leading receiver while Cobb is Kentucky’s 2nd leading rusher and leading receiver. This Music City Bowl will definitely come down to the play of both C.J. Spiller and Randall Cobb. Whichever can impose their will more on the opposing defense should have a great chance to win the game.
Those are the numbers and I’m sticking it.
Corey is a recent UK alum currently residing in Louisville. He is the Wildcat Blue Blogs “statistical analyst” and will be breaking down UK’s SEC opponents in basketball starting in January. Corey’s next assignment for us will be for the Louisville game.
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