GAME 13 – 12/23/2009
1:00 PM – RUPP ARENA – LEXINGTON, KY
LONG BEACH STATE 49ers (6-5)
TV – FSN SOUTH
FIRST MEETING BETWEEN TEAMS
When the schedule was announced, Coach Calipari tried to sell us on the 49ers as a true challenge for the Cats. They were favored to compete for the Big West Title and possibly a spot in the NCAA Tournament. As of now, at 6-5, the 49ers don’t really show any sign of being a team that can knock off UK, but this game scares me for another reason.
In sports, this is a classic example of a trap game. UK is fresh off the heels of four straight big time matchups and have just won perhaps the most monumental game in Kentucky basketball since 1998. The opponent is not a glamour matchup. There is no rivalry. The game is at 1 PM. And Christmas Break for the players will be, oh, three hours away when this game tips off. Let’s take a look at those 49ers and see if they will be the equivalent of coal in the stocking.
THE STARTERS
G- LARRY ANDERSON, SO, 6’6, 215 — 12.8 ppg, 3.8 reb, 3.9 assists
G- CASPER WARE, SO , 5’9, 170 — 12.2 ppg, 2.8 reb, 5.6 assists
G – STEPHAN GILLING, SR, 6’2, 207 — 12.8, 1.5 reb, 0.9 assists
F- T.J ROBINSON, SO, 6’7, 210 — 17.0 ppg, 10.7 reb, 0.6 assists
F – EUGENE PHELPS, SO, 6’6, 200 — 8.9 ppg, 7.0 reb, 1.0 assists
Larry Anderson has very good size and speed for the 49ers and can present some matchup problems. He is a good rebounder for a guard and is second on the team in assists. His main threat is that he averages almost 2.5 steals a game so he could provide some matchup problems due to his size and defensive ability. Most of his game is close to the basket to mid range however. Stephan Gilling is the one player that kind of worries me. He has 39 3’s on the season and is shooting 45% from beyond the arc. Casper Ware is the big assist man, but tends to play out of control some. He does create his own shots and he is averaging almost 2 steals a game. He is a pretty decent 3-point threat at 44.8%. Greg Plater is averaging 8.8 a game off the bench and is second on the team in 3-pointers made. He looks to be a pretty average passer and rebounder however.
T.J. Robinson is the poor man’s Patrick Patterson on this team, averaging a double double per game. He is shooting 58% from the field but is a less than average FT shooter and is not a threat to score outside the paint really. For a big man, Robinson has just 2 blocks on the season. Eugene Phelps is a decent scorer and rebounder but once again, his game does not extend much past mid range at best.
OUTLOOK
Looking at the starting lineup of the 49er’s it is easy to see where the hype on this team comes from. Four sophomore starters, three of which are averaging over 10 points a game. They have a big guard and a couple of decent 3-point shooters, and that combination has spelled trouble for UK in the past. Robinson looks like a handful to guard, and Phelps is a decent starter that seems to produce when he plays.
The big knock on the 49ers is that they really only have six players that can put up numbers. After Plater’s 8.8 off the bench, the 49ers have three players that average about two points a game and four players that average less than a point a game. Depth is not the 49er’s strong point and UK should be able to wear this team down and run them into submission. The 49er’s are not good of a defensive team either as they are giving up 75 points a game.
The other thing that concerns me s that Long Beach State is going to come into this game fearless. They have already played several “big name opponents” but the results have not been good. They have had some pretty bad losses on the season: 82-62 @ Notre Dame, 85-62 vs West Virginia, and 107-74 @ Texas. Despite all the distractions, I still expect UK to jump on Long Beach State early and hold a decent lead most of the game and improve to 13-0 with a 81-68 win.
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