GAME 10 – 11/14/2009
VANDERBILT STADIUM, NASHVILLE
12:20 PM – SEC NETWORK
VANDERBILT COMMODORES (2-8) (0-6)
SERIES HISTORY: UK LEADS 39-38-4
RECENT MEETINGS:
2008: VANDERBILT 31 UK 24
2007: UK 27 VANDERBILT 20
2006: UK 38 VANDERBILT 26
2005: UK 48 VANDERBILT 43
2004: UK 14 VANDERBILT 13
We know the drill by now. Coming into this week’s matchup with Vanderbilt, Kentucky football is at a crossroads. Win this game, become bowl eligible for the fourth straight season, and brag that we actually “own” a SEC program in football with our 5th win in 6 tries over the Dores. Lose, well, it’s going to be another long week for second guessing the coach/players, and watching UK “fansites” bash the players, plus we get a whole season of fretting how Vanderbilt has overtaken us in football.
The Cats appear to be in pretty good health for this matchup. It looks as if bot Hartline and Newton will play, Cobb, Locke, Micha and Trevard should be back. And Vandy is not the bowl busting team of destiny they were last year. Let’s see how this game breaks down:
OFFENSE
Stop me if you have heard this before. The team the Wildcats are facing feature a QB that on paper, the Wildcats should be able to slap around silly. We thought that about South Carolina, Mississippi State, Louisiana-Monroe, etc, and the Cats ended up with 2 L’s. Senior Mackenzi Adams has close to 2500 yards passing in his career, but has had a tumultuous four years in and out of the starting lineup. After the season ending ankle injury to Larry Smith, Adams is back again. This season, he has completed 51.5% of his passes for 339 yards with 0 TD’s and 1 INT in what breaks down to 2.5 games this season. For his career, Adam’s numbers are not much better with 14 TD’s against 16 INT’s with a completion % around 52%. Adams is a threat to run but he is not a running QB, if that makes sense.
The real thing UK needs to be concerned about is the running attack of the Commodores. “Storming” Warren Norman is a legitimate playmaker in every sense of the word. The true freshman has 658 yards rushing and 3 TD’s on the season and averages 5.7 yards a touch. In addition, and all apologies to Cobb and Locke, but this kid is the most dynamic kick returner in the SEC with 3 TD’s and a 80 yard return that came up short. Norman only averages about 15 carries a game and is just one half of the Commodores all freshman rushing attack. Zac Stacy
has 431 yards rushing and 4.6 yards a carry. He does seem to be a boom or bust runner as he averaged 9.4 a carry against Georgia Tech and just 1.3 versus Mississippi State and Rice.
The Vanderbilt WR’s are nothing special. They have three WR’s that have basically the same stats and average about 25 yards a game. John Cole, Brandon Barden, and Udom Umoh account for about half of the Commodore’s 146 receiving yards a game.
DEFENSE
The defense is the heart of this Vanderbilt team. Despite being 2-8, this defense have kept them in most of their games into the third and even fourth quarters. It’s easy to dismiss the D of a team that has lost 6 games in a row, but Vandy gave up only 27 points in a whole game to the Gators at the Swamp, while the Gators put 31 on the board against UK at Commonwealth…. so yea. They do have a stingy scoring defense averaging just 22 points a game against them.
Myron Lewis is one of the top cover corners in the SEC and is a hard hitter. For the season he has 3 INT’s and 7 pass breakups. While just a sophomore, Chris Marve is one of the top LB’s in the SEC and is leading the SEC in tackles. He reminds me of Wesley Woodyard, in that he is a bit undersized but finds a way to be around the ball.
OUTLOOK
I know it sounds cliche, but Vanderbilt is playing for pride. It’s scary to face a team with nothing to play for and on their home field to boot. That said, this is not last year’s Vanderbilt team that was in the top 25 for the first few glorious weeks of last season, despite te same basic core group of players. While the Vandy D is tough, the offense has been anemic in the SEC averaging just a touchdown a game while giving up around 23 points. While Vandy has played tough the firs half in most of their games, that offense is too inconsistent to make the big plays. With Lindley back, UK should be able to cover the run without getting burned by a below average QB.
That said, this is a game that UK needs more. And we can stop saying that every game is a crossroads game when we can finally start putting these games in the win column. Here’s to a 21-10 UK victory and to being bowl eligible for the 4th straight season.
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