UK Football Preview: Game 2 – Louisville Cardinals

GAME 2 – 9/19/2009

COMMONWEALTH STADIUM – LEXINGTON

12:00 PM – ESPNU

LOUISVILLE CARDINALS

1-0

SERIES HISTORY:

UK LEADS 12-9

RECENT MEETINGS:

2008: UK 27-2

2007: UK 40-34

2006: UL 59-28

2005: UL 31-24

2004: UL 28-0

Simply put, this is a huge game for both teams. UK needs to be 2-0 heading into their murders row schedule of Florida and Alabama, while UL needs a win over their in state rival and needs to restore a luster of a program that made it to BCS games just a few years ago.

Both teams were off last week. UK pasted Miami (OH) 42-0 in Cincinnati, but since Miami appears to be one of the worst Division 1 schools, it’s hard to get a good read on how good UK may be. Miami has gone two games without a point scored as they traveled to #12 Boise State this weekend and lost 48-0. It’s even harder to get a read on the Cardinals you defeated FCS school Indiana State 30-10 in week 1. Indiana State is pretty much the worst team in the FCS division as they lost this weekend to Eastern Illinois 31-0. Indiana State actually led UL after one quarter. That may not seem too bad until you consider that Indiana State has lost 29 straight games and are 1-53 their last 54 games.

OFFENSE

Justin Burke was 17-31 for 223 yards with no TD’s and 2 INT’s vs Indiana State. You have to assume that Trevard Lindley and Winston Guy are looking at those numbers and licking their chops. Burke is a transfer from NC State who beat out JUCO QB Adam Froman for the starting job, although Froman was slowed by an injury. so you wonder how solid Burke’s hold on the job is. Freshman Will Stein saw mopup duty vs Indiana State.

The strength of the Cardinal’s offense seems to be with their running game. Sophomore Victor Anderson followed up his 1000 yard freshman season with 93 yards and 2 TD’s vs Indiana State. Bilal Powell averaged 4.7 yards a carry last year and added 73 yards and a TD in their first game.

Doug Beaumont is the Cardinal’s top returning WR from last year as he had 750 yards receiving and 0 TD’s despite catching 62 passes. He had 5 catches for 69 yards against ISU. Scott Young only caught 38 passes for 559 yards with 2 TD’s in his previous two seasons at UL, and has 4 catches for 68 yards this year. Junior TE Cameron Graham had 3 passes for 43 yards. The most explosive Cardinal may be Trent Guy, the return specialist who took a kickoff 100 yards in the 2007 UK/UL matchup.

DEFENSE

Who knows if the UL defense is any good or not? They are on their third defensive co-ordinator in three seasons, so I would not expect too much. They handled Indiana State, but that is nothing to brag about since they had lost 53 of 54 games coming in. The only real pass rush Louisville got on ISU was provided by sophomore William Savoy, who had 2 sacks. Savoy’s getting pressure on Hartline will be a key goal for the Cards. If Hartline has plenty of time, it will be a long game.

OUTLOOK

Oh how they mighty have fallen. In just two season, UK has reduced the UL offense from 59 points to just 2. Make no mistake, the big momentum is on Kentucky’s side in the rivalry and on paper, UK has an obvious edge, UL is down their top three QB’s from last season, UK has a rejuvenated Mike Hartline and what seems to be a steady stable of WR’s. There are mismatches all over the field and they are all in the favor of the Big Blue. I earlier forecast a 28-17 UK win and while I think UK wins easily, I know that it is a rivalry game and that the Cards will show up with fire in their eyes and things will be close for a half or so. After that, look for UK’s defensive line to get a confidence building domination in the second half and look for UK to notch a 27-10 victory.

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