UK FOOTBALL PREVIEW: Can the Cat's claw their way into 3rd in the SEC East?

About three months ago, I published a very early look at the upcoming football season, and blinded by pure optimism and not much else, predicted a 7 win season for UK. A lot of things have changed since that time. Mike Hartline seems to have emerged as a leader. UK seems to have a reliable group of receivers. And UK fans are very optimistic about breaking some of these horrid streaks we have had going on the last few seasons.

So with my big blue tinted glasses on, and a big tall glass of Blue Kool-Aid at my side, let’s take a look at the upcoming football season and my fearless predictions.

9/5 – @ Miami (OHIO) in Cincinnati

There should be a lot of blue in the stands for this season opener which will be held at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. The Redhawks are coming off a last place 1-7 season in the MAC and a 2-10 record overall. Miami was arguably one of the worst FBS schools in the country last year, and with a new coaching squad have no where to go but up. The improvement would not be in Game 1 however, as UK should roll 34-10 .

9/19 – Louisville

Cat fans are looking for the 3peat this year after the 27-2 pasting of the Cards at Papa John’s Stadium. The Cards started out 5-2 last year but collapsed down the stretch, losing their last 5 games and several of those losses were of the blowout variety. There may be a new QB for the Cards this year, but this game is at UK and the Wildcats smell blood in the water already. It won’t be as easy as some expect as it is still a bitter rivalry , but look for UK by a score of 28-17 or so.

9/26 – Florida

The only good thing to say about this is that the last 3 games between the two teams at Commonwealth have been fairly competitive and high scoring. UK lost by 8 in ’07 and just 3 in ’03, so UK is capable in putting a scare into the Gators at home. The home scores have been an average score of 39-28 UF the last 3 years which is a heck of a lot better than the 36-5 average beatdowns at the Swamp the last three visits. Depending on the Pope’s schedule, Tim Tebow should have been declared a saint by this game (which is really odd since Tebow is not Catholic) so I don’t forsee any divine intervention for UK in this game. Look for the Gators to win but UK can claim a moral victory with “just” a 31-17 loss.

10/3 – Alabama

A murderer’s row of early home games continues as last year’s 12-2 Tide roll into Lexington for the first time since a 45-7 beatdown in 2004. This game was a heartbreaker last year as Bama won just 17-14 at home. Look for Alabama to be a top 5 team at this time and Saban and compamy will not leave any room for late heroics this year. Alabama should roll out of Lexington with a 31-13 win.

10/10 – @ South Carolina

To Spurrier’s chagrin, his Gamecocks have been closer to UK and Vandy than UF and Georgia the last few seasons, but one thing has not changed in Spurriers move from UF to USC. Steve still owns UK. To the point of never losing to UK with a 16-0 record. The Gamecocks have beaten UK 9 times in a row. But it has been close. 5 of the last 7 games have been wins of 7 points or less. USC could also have two losses on the record at this point to Georgia and Ole Miss, so they may be ready for a letdown. SC was just 7-6 last year and as much as it pains me, I don’t think this is the year UK wipes the smirk off Spurrier’s face. USC 24-21.

10/17 – @ Auburn

Very interesting game. UK rarely plays Auburn and when they do it is usually along the lines of a 42-10 loss. but this is not even Tommy Tuberville’s Auburn Tigers anymore. It’s the Gene Chizik (5 wins in 2 seasons at Iowa State) show and he has the task of improving an Auburn team that was not very good (5-7) last year. On paper, this is a game that UK can definitely win and and it may very well be a “circle the wagons” game but with my faith in Mike Hartline, Chris Matthews, and Micah Johnson’s biceps, I predict an ugly, defensive minded battle with UK pulling out a 14-10 win.

10/24 – Louisiana – Monroe

I am surprised UK scheduled this team again after the Warhawks gave UK all they wanted in a 42-40 loss in 2006. UK does not want a repeat of that or MTSU from last year so they need to stay focused and put away an inferior team at home by halftime. That said, look for UK to keep up the momentum of the Auburn win and move about .500 at 4-3. Look for UK to score early and often after a very tough four game stretch., and allow their weary warriors to rest the second half of a 38-7 win.

10/31 – Mississippi State

The Bulldogs were one of the SEC’s biggest disappointments last year, finishing 4-8. UK took MSU lightly the last time at Commonwealth and were embarrassed. Mississippi State will be a vastly different team this season with new coach Dan Mullen, an Urban Meyer disciple, and 5 new starters from the JUCO ranks. That said, this is still a game UK should win. Don’t expect the Cats to take anything lightly and win a close one 24-17 for their 6th win in 8 games vs MSU.

11/7 – Eastern Kentucky University

It’s another record padding appearance by EKU at Commonwealth. At this point, UK’s offense is clicking and UK moves to 6-3 with a 41-3 win. This can be another good opportunity for UK to go up 28 or so in the first half, then rest everyone for the stretch run. At this point, the grind of 8 straight games will have taken it’s toll, so EKU comes at a good part of the schedule.

11/14 – @ Vanderbilt

Vandy ended a 4 game losing streak to UK last year and the worst thing is that Vandy returns 18 starters from last year. The best thing for UK is that Vandy returns 9 starters on offense. Only Washington State and Central Florida averaged less than Vandy’s 256 yards a game last year and that pop gun attack that scored more than 16 points just 5 times all season returns as well. UK’s defense looks to be improved over last year and the offense should be much improved. UK gets revenge for last year with a 28-10 romp in Nashville.

11/21 – @ Georgia

Georgia was a “big disappointment” at 10-3 last year and some people say Georgia will be worse this year. Most preseason pundits have Georgia as a top 15 team, so I really don’t see the Bulldog ship totally sinking. Last year was a heartbreaking loss at Commonwealth and UK has to go between the hedges this year. Look for the toll of not having a off week since week 2 to show against a better team as Georgia wins 31-10.

11/28 – Tennessee

In reality, the streak should be over. UK should have won in 2004, 2006, and 2007 but were snakebit. UK has Tennessee where they want them: coming off a 5-7 season, at home, and with Lane Kiffin as coach. I really don’t see Tennessee as much improved team and this could easily be a “season on the brink” for Kiffin if the Vo
ls get off to a slow start. Regardless, Kiffin gets his introduction to the UK/UT rivalry with UK breaking the 24 year streak 28-17.

ANALYSIS

Kentucky has a lot of question marks coming into this season, but as strange as it sounds, has a pretty favorable schedule. Only three of the 12 games are sure losses (UF, Alabama, Georgia) and UK has three sure wins on the schedule (Miami, Louisiana Monroe, EKU). Add in the games where UK is probably going to be favored (Louisville, Mississippi State) and you have UK looking at a 5-3 record. UK should beat Vandy, but since Vandy beat UK last year and the game is in Nashville, I consider it a tossup that UK should win, so that gives UK a 6-3 schedule.

That leaves three games that will define UK’s season (@ South Carolina, @ Auburn, vs Tennessee). Being an optimist, I think UK will win one of the two road games and will beat UT, giving UK an 8-4 mark and 4-4 in the SEC.

I have said since this blog was started that UK has a realistic shot at finishing 3rd in the SEC East. An 8-4 record would reflect that as well. If Mike Hartline can improve like we hear he is doing, UK has a real shot at winning both the USC and Auburn game and finishing the season 9-3. While that would require a “perfect season”, I am holding strong and predicting a 8-4 campaign. I know some of you are reading this and rolling your eyes, but the SEC gods have actually smiled on UK and delivered a schedule with 5 winnable SEC games.

Here’s hoping to Gene Chizik and Lane Kiffin’s lack of development to make it all possible.

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