UK vs UNC: The race to 2000 wins is on
By Staff
There they sit. The number 1 and number 2 all time winningest programs of all time, both of them destined to hit 2000 wins before the end of the 2009-2010 season, and the title of all time winningest program is the closest it has been in several years. Just four wins separate UK and UNC from being number 1 on the all time wins list.
I know it is, oh 2 and a half months or so from the start of hoops season, but now that the schedules have been released, it’s not too early for a little conjecture and a look at where these two programs may be by the end of the year.
NOVEMBER
KENTUCKY – Coach Calipari gets a pretty favorable schedule to blend his team together and get them adjusted to life in the DDMO. UK gets four tuneups at Rupp (Morehead State, Miami – Ohio, Sam Houston State, Rider) before finally going on the road. The competition will be a bit stiffer in Cancun as UK will face Cleveland State and the winner of Stanford and Virginia. The Cat’s close out November in Freedom Hall against UNC Asheville.
NORTH CAROLINA – The Tar Heels open with Florida International, North Carolina Central, and Valparaiso in Chapel Hill before departing to NYC and and facing off against Ohio State and either Syracuse or California. UNC finishes November at home against … wait for it … Gardner Webb and Nevada.
ANALYSIS: Calipari could not ask for a better schedule to get his team adjusted to playing with one another. Morehead State has been a NCAA team lately, and the Cancun teams certainly won’t roll over for UK, but I don’t see a real opportunity for a blemish on UK’s record in November. UNC’s tournament trip to NYC could be a real test for the Tarheels. Dick Vitale has listed Ohio State as #24 on his Top 40 list and California and Syracuse are ranked #14 and #17.
PREDICTION: Kentucky finishes November with a 7-0 mark and while I am very tempted to give UNC an unblemished mark as well, but they have a better chance to lose a November game than Kentucky, so let’s say that November ends with the teams looking like this:
UK 7-0 (1995 wins)
UNC 6-1 (1990 wins)
DECEMBER
KENTUCKY: Kentucky gets three tests right off the bat with the December 5 game at Rupp vs UNC, then the December 9 matchup at NYC vs UConn. Then Kentucky travels to Bloomington to face rival Indiana. The Wildcats close out the year at Rupp with Austin Peay, Drexel, Long Beach State, and Hartford.
NORTH CAROLINA: North Carolina has a couple of tests to open December with as well: against Michigan State at home and then in Rupp vs UK. Prebysterian then invades Chapel Hill before UNC travels to Austin, Texas to face the Longhorns. UNC then settles in for the remainder of the year at Chapel Hill with games against Marshall, Rutgers, and Albany, NY.
ANALYSIS/PREDICTION: It’s a tough first three games for UK, but I think that UK will be assisted by the insane atmosphere at Rupp and will handle UNC. Just so I don’t get accused of being a total blue blooded fanatic, let’s say for the sake of argument, UK loses to #13 UConn. UK faces their first real road test to Bloomington, but I still think IU is a year away from being able to beat UK. Then UK finishes at Rupp. The first chance at 2000 wins will be December 21 vs Drexel (an ESPNU game) or December 23 vs Long Beach State. The Hartford game on 12/29 will also be televised on the U. LBS is not a pushover though, they should be a solid NCAA team, but once again, an insane environment at Rupp would be overwhelming.
UNC has a very tough game against #3 Michigan State and I really want to give them a “L” but will say the Heels win because they are at home, and then comes the loss at UK. Playing on the “home court rules” scenario, I would say that UNC will lose at Texas to #4 Texas. This month could be a huge month in giving UK a cushion heading into SEC play as UNC could lose three games if Michigan State wins at UNC, but I will be gentle on the Tarheels. At the end of 2009, here is what I see the wins total looking like:
UK 13-1 (2001 wins)
UNC 11-3 (1995 wins)
I know that I admonish UK fans for having unrealistic expectations, but it is really hard to look at the first two months and not see 12, 13, or even 14 wins for UK. On the other hand, depending on what happens in the NY tournament and with Michigan State, you could see even 4 or 5 losses for the Tarheels. I think 3 losses would be right, but they have a much tougher early schedule with #2 UK, #3 Michigan State, #4 Texas, #14 Cal or #17 Syracuse, and #24 Ohio State all on the schedule. The rankings are Vitale’s preseason rankings.
So for now, the hand wringing about UK losing the all time wins title to UNC can stop. UK will be the first to 2000 wins and should expand on their lead a little going into 2010. Now let’s say that UK does struggle a bit and starts out 11-3 and ends 2009 with 1999 wins … the chance for win 2000 would be January 2 at Rupp vs ….. Louisville. While that would be dramatic, I would rather make the Ville win number 2002.
I will look at the race between these two teams around the middle of December when he see how the conference foes are stacking up.
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