What’s Next for Kentucky Wildcats Basketball?

Mandatory Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

If there is one thing sportswriters and fans have in common it is that both are prone to hyperbole. Every incredible catch is the greatest football play ever; every slam dunk is the greatest throw down ever; and we can’t wait to anoint the next Jordan or Montana or Ruth.

And so, before they had ever set foot on campus—much less played in their first game—UK’s freshman were proclaimed the best ever and talks of a 40-0 season echoed across the college basketball landscape. Of course, in the third game of the season, the ‘Cats lost to Michigan State, and with it, hopes for an undefeated season were gone.

It should, then, come as no surprise that the narrative being pushed since UK’s 73-66 win over UofL on Saturday, 28 December is the team “grew up before our eyes”. While I acknowledge that the team played some—if not all—of its best basketball against UofL, it remains to be seen whether this year’s team has finally realized its real potential or if they simply put together one really good game. In sports, we’re constantly at risk of overstating what one game means.

That being said, we have 13 games from which to try to extrapolate how UK might perform over the final 18 of the regular season.

Most Likely Wins:

Mississippi State (1/8)

Texas A&M (1/21)

Georgia (1/25)

Ole Miss (2/4)

@Mississippi State (2/8)

@Auburn (2/12)

LSU (2/22)

Arkansas (2/27)

@South Carolina (3/1)

Alabama (3/4)

These 10 games represent either the worst of the conference—Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Auburn—or home games against decent competition that I anticipate being wins because they’re at Rupp—Ole Miss, LSU, Arkansas. The only two games among these that pose potential problems for UK are the games in Starkville and Columbia.

Tough, but likely, Wins:

@Arkansas (1/14)

Tennessee (1/18)

@LSU (1/28)

Florida (2/15)

@Ole Miss (2/18)

If there is a stretch where this Kentucky team will show they have truly grown up before our eyes it includes the stretch of games against Arkansas in Fayetteville and at home against Tennessee. Games in Baton Rouge and Oxford will test the ‘Cats but talent should prevail. Florida will prove a good test in mid-February but a jacked-up Saturday night crowd for ESPN Gameday should be the difference. Rupp Arena crowds might be fairly criticized for not being loud for games against Eastern Michigan but they also know how to perform for big games.

Possible Losses:

@Vanderbilt (1/11)

@Missouri (2/1)

@Florida (3/8)

That tough stretch of games for UK in January begins on Saturday in Nashville. A young team playing in Memorial Gym in front of what should be a hostile crowd? This one has danger written all over it. The ‘Cats travel to Missouri after what should be a physical game in Louisiana; Missouri is seen by some as a possible dark horse candidate to win the SEC, should UK and Florida split their games. Finally, UK wraps up the regular season in Gainesville in what could be the game that determines the regular season SEC champion. Since taking over as head coach at UK Calipari is 2-2 versus Florida in Gainesville.

While going undefeated in the SEC isn’t an impossible task, it may be an unlikely one. And, fairly or not, any loss in conference play—even on the road—will be scrutinized, by fan and pundit alike. However, maintaining a perfect home record in conference play, dominating the lesser opponents such as Auburn on the road, and winning in Nashville or Gainesville will be invaluable in providing the confidence the ‘Cats will need heading into post-season play. Only then will we surely know if they’ve grown up.