WBN Weekend Watch List Special Edition: Kentucky vs. Louisville Match Up

I think Louisville is going to have big match up problems against these two.

There are bowl games, NBA games, college basketball games and NFL games galore this weekend; but Big Blue Nation will have their full attention towards one game and one game only. The match up between the Wildcats and the Cardinals is arguably the biggest it has ever been. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 nationally with only one spot separating them (UK #3 and UofL #4).

The coaches for each team have been making noise and headlines in a battle of words and subtle digs all summer long. Calipari omitted Louisville when talking about area college teams and Pitino came up with the slogan “Louisville First” to try to one up Cal’s “Players First” motto; and those are just two examples out of about 30. These two have raised the fan hatred level to a fever pitch.

But now it comes down to the game. All the trash talking will be one-sided after 2:30 PM on New Years Eve, for a few hours at least. Most experts and fans are giving the edge to Kentucky, mostly because of the fact that the game is in Rupp Arena and John Calipari just doesn’t lose in that building. In fact, he is undefeated in Rupp since becoming the head coach at Kentucky.

But experts also favored Louisville in the Yum! Center last season and the Wildcats completely dominated the game with superior point guard play, smarter basketball IQ and all around athleticism.

What do the match ups look like and who do I think will win each individual one? Wait no more my fellow Wildcat crazies. I have matched the players that I think will start together. That doesn’t mean Pitino or Cal will adhere to my line up, but this is what I feel is most likely. I will also give a quick look at the bench.

Marquis Teague vs. Peyton Siva

Teague: Ppg: 10.9; Apg: 4.5; Rpg: 2.4; TOpg: 2.9; Spg: 1.5

Siva: Ppg: 9; Apg: 6.4; Rpg: 2.8; TOpg: 3.7; Spg; 1.8

While Siva has experience over Teague, the Kentucky point guard has been having the better games as of late. Siva has been struggling shooting the ball, has had trouble getting into foul trouble and has a higher turn over margin that the freshman Teague. Marquis has done decent on the big stage against UNC, Kansas and Indiana. Siva’s big stages have been against Vanderbilt and Memphis. Granted he hit the shot to put the Cards over Vandy, but so far that has been the highlight of his season. For a player that Louisville fans had touted as a player of the year contender, he has been a big disappointment.

Teague (6’2) is also much larger than Siva (6’0) and just as fast. Siva has struggled against bigger Kentucky point guards in the past (John Wall and Brandon Knight) and don’t let the experience argument confuse you either. Knight completely dominated Siva last season in a freshman vs. sophomore battle.

I think Teague’s size, ability to get to the rim at will and the help around him will give him the advantage over Siva.

Doron Lamb vs. Chris Smith

Lamb: Ppg: 16.1; Apg: 2.1; Rpg: 4.0; TOpg: 0.9; Spg: 0.7

Smith: Ppg: 10.1; Apg: 2.9: Rpg: 2.9; TOpg: 0.9; Spg: 1.2

Both of these players can score, there is no doubt about that, but Chris Smith relies more on the outside shot and the deep ball, where Lamb can score from any spot on the floor. Lamb’s high scoring game came against Penn State and Samford when he put up 26 points in each. Smith’s big game was against IUPUI where he put up 19. Lamb has gone over 20 points three times and Smith has not scored of 20 yet.

Lamb wins the scoring battle in this one, but what about defense? We have another situation where Lamb (6’4) is bigger than Smith (6’2). Smith does not have the ability to get to the rim around a much bigger Lamb. Doron also is a better ball handler and can play multiple positions. The only shot Smith has is if Lamb is off on his shot and if there is a break down on defense that leaves him with open threes.

This might be the most lopsided match as Lamb beats Smith with ease.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist vs. Kyle Kuric

Kidd-Gilchrist: Ppg: 13.1; Rpg: 6.9; Apg: 2.0; Bpg: 1.1; Spg: 1.3

Kuric: Ppg: 13.3; Rpg: 4.5; Apg: 1.2; Bpg: 0.5; Spg: 1.8

Kyle Kuric is more athletic than people give him credit for; then again he has not faced an opponent quite like Kidd-Gilchrist all season long. Another height advantage for the Cats as MKG stands at 6’7 and Kuric measures up to 6’4. Kidd-Gilchrist is by far the best defender the Cats have and Kuric has disappeared in games for Louisville this season.

Another factor that goes in favor of MKG is his all around game. Kuric can get things done on the scoring end, but when it comes to rebounding, assisting, and defending, Kidd-Gilchrist excels in every category. Also, MKG gets his points in cleaning up the boards, fast breaks, and off the dribble; where as Kuric is mostly limited to spot up shooting and the occasional drive to the rim. Kidd-Gilchrist can kill you from just about every spot on the floor.

There is not guarantee that Kidd-Gilchrist will guard Kuric, but being that Kyle is one of the Cards best scorers, you can almost count on it. MKG has shut down much better players than Kuric this year and Kidd Gillie shows up for every game no matter what. Advantage Cats.

Terrence Jones vs. Chane Behanan

Jones: Ppg: 12.4; Rpg: 6.2; Apg: 1.6; Bpg: 2.2; Spg: 1.2

Behanan: Ppg: 8.8; Rpg: 8.0; Apg: 0.8; Bpg: 0.7; Spg: 0.8

This could be the match up that hurts Kentucky, depending on how healthy Terrence Jones is and which player decides to show up on the biggest stage of the season so far. Jones played well against Kansas and North Carolina, playing better than Thomas Robinson and John Henson. But we all remember how he floundered against IU.

Behanan has played like a freshman thus far. He has shown flashes of being dominant but has missed some key shots (put back for the win against Vanderbilt) and has disappeared in games against bad opponents like Western Kentucky where he had zero points in a situation where he should have scored in double digits with ease.

As long as Jones’ finger is OK to go and he comes in playing as the All American we all know he is, then he should not have much of a problem against Chane Behanan. Jones has a lot to prove on Saturday. A big day is expected out of him. If that happens, the Cats could win by double digits. If not, Behanan could give Jones some major problems. I call this match a toss-up. Let’s hope Terrence proves me wrong.

Anthony Davis vs. Gorgui Dieng

Davis: Ppg: 11.8; Rpg: 10.0; Apg: 0.9; Bpg: 4.3; Spg: 1.5

Dieng: Ppg: 10.8; Rpg: 10.2; Apg: 1.3; Bpg: 2.9; Spg: 0.7

This looks like an even match up, right? Not so fast. While Dieng has been coming on strong as of late, Davis has been an absolute monster and a match up nightmare in every game so far besides the game against Indiana when he got into foul trouble. But, when he was in the game, he made Cody Zeller a non-factor for the most part.

Dieng has had problems in the past with matching up against quality big men in Big East play. I doubt he has seen a player with the freakish athletic talent that Davis brings to the table. Dieng is often clumsy and looks lost in the offense. Dieng has also gotten into foul trouble often and his opponents have been less than stellar. He has not yet faced an opponent of the caliber of Cody Zeller, Tyler Zeller, John Henson or Thomas Robinson.

As long as Davis stays out of foul trouble, I think he wins this match up.

Off the Bench Players

Who has the better overall bench? This is an interesting question, as Louisville has more players to throw into the game than Kentucky.

Kentucky Bench

Darius Miller: Ppg: 10.2; Rpg: 3.3; Apg: 2.8; Spg: 1.0; TOpg: 1.3

Kyle Wiltjer: Ppg: 7.4; Rpg: 2.9; Apg: 0.7; Bpg: 0.6; Spg: 0.3

Eloy Vargas: Ppg: 1.8; Rpg: 3.4; Apg: 0.2; Bpg: 0.6; Spg: 0.2

Twany Beckham: Ppg: 0.0; Rpg: 1.3; Apg: 0.3; Spg: 0.0; TOpg: 0.0

Louisville Bench

Russ Smith: Ppg: 10.2; Rpg: 1.9; Apg: 1.9; Spg: 2.5; TOpg: 1.6

Rakeem Buckles: Ppg: 5.8; Rpg; 4.0; Apg: 0.0; Bpg: 0.3; Spg: 0.5

Kevin Ware: Ppg: 0.0; Rpg: 0.0; Apg: 0.0; Spg: 0.5; TOpg: 0.5

Elisha Justice: Ppg: 1.9; Rpg; 1.0; Apg: 0.5; Spg: 0.6; TOpg: 1.1

Jared Swopshire: Ppg: 5.0; Rpg: 1.3; Apg: 0.3; Bpg: 0.1; Spg: 0.3

Louisville actually has more players that have seen clock this season, but these are the five that are most likely to play Saturday.

This is a quality vs. quantity situation. It is true that Louisville has more bodies that are multifaceted, but I feel that Darius Miller and Kyle Wiltjer can start just about anywhere else in the country.

There is no argument that Louisville is much deeper than Kentucky, but the quality that some of the players that come off the bench for the Cards are not causes for concern. Russ Smith really is the only player on Louisville’s bench that can start (and he just might) and he can score in bunches. His game is erratic, but he is not afraid to take the ball to the rim or shoot. His aggressiveness, on offense and on defense, can be trouble.

Rakeem Buckles is athletic and long but does not provide much of an offensive threat. Justice is not very good, Kevin Ware is unproven and Jared Swopshire is inconstant.

Kyle Wiltjer can be instant offense if he plays with confidence. He has improved but the game against Indiana was hard to watch as he passed up open shot after open shot. If Wiltjer can give the Cats good minutes and about 10 points, then he will have done an amazing job.

Darius Miller is more of a co-starter than a bench player. His three-point shot has improved and he has a floater from the lane that is almost impossible to guard. He also brings defensive pressure and a calming effect to the Cats.

Vargas is all hustle. He won’t light up the score board but his defensive rebounding and blocking are what bring him into the game. Twany Beckham has not had the chance to show much. Honestly I hope we don’t see him unless the Cats are up by 30. If that is the case then Teague is doing his job and is out of foul trouble.

Final Thoughts

Kentucky’s starting five is superior to Louisville’s starting five and they can be vastly superior, depending on the flow of the game and how they handle Louisville’s press and defense.

I have no doubt that the Wildcats can outplay the starting five of Louisville, it’s the bench that concerns me. Kentucky cannot afford to get into foul trouble at the point guard spot or at the center position. Siva and Dieng are out-matched against Teague and Davis, but I don’t want Lamb to play out of position or Vargas to try to handle Dieng full-time.

The Cats will have to weather a plethora of bodies thrown at them. This is where conditioning will pay off. They may also have to combat a dirty game plan from Rick Pitino. We all remember what happened two years ago as the Louisville players came out jawing and trash talking at DeMarcus Cousins, starting fights in order to try to get a hot-headed but talented player kicked out of the game. Could the Cards do the same against Terrence Jones or Marquis Teague? That is yet to be seen.

I expect Kentucky to win at home in a hard-fought game. 78-70 is my final score prediction and the player of the game for the Cats will be Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. I am hoping for a more lopsided victory, but we all know these rivalry games can go either way.